Oliver’s Insights

Oliver’s Insights is a special commentary by Dr. Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Chief Economist, on issues and trends affecting the economy and financial markets. Dr. Oliver is supported by a team of economists dedicated to delivering timely commentary and the asset allocation decisions for AMP Capital’s diversified product range.

Oliver's Insights
Just how worrying is the 'worry list' for investors?
3 July 2009 (PDF - 247 Kb)

Key points:

• There is a long 'worry list' being thrown up in regards to the outlook for shares and other growth oriented assets including indebted consumers and weak credit availability, the blow out in budget deficits, an inflation blow out on the back of central banks pumping money into their economies, a double dip recession, a US$ crash, worrying demographic trends and fears that shares are now expensive after their recent rally.
• While most of these issues cannot be ignored, and some will likely constrain returns over the medium term in mainstream global equity markets such as the US, they are not as worrying as they appear. They are not enough to prevent solid gains in shares over the year ahead.
  

Oliver's Insights Archive
Where are we in both the short and long-term share market cycles?  (18 June, 2009) Listed property securities - have they bottomed? (12 June, 2009) Myths and mistakes investors often make (2 June, 2009) The Australian dollar, US dollar and commodity prices  (27 May, 2009) How strong will the economic recovery be?  (21 May, 2009) China's economic recovery (7 May, 2009) Swine flu - pandemic or just another flu pandemonium?  (28 April, 2009) Risk and portfolio construction in the aftermath of the GFC (17 April, 2009) What's driven the rally in shares over the last month? Is it sustainable? (9 April, 2009) Quantitative easing and buying toxic debt - will it work? (25 March, 2009) Sharemarket earnings and dividends (12 March, 2009) Australia enters recession (4 March, 2009) Will the gold rush continue? (26 February, 2009) Will rising budget deficits just push up inflation and bond yields? (12 February, 2009) Falling household debt and rising savings - how big a problem? (5 February, 2009) Asian shares in a world of deleveraging (30 January, 2009) The global economy: bad now but some positive signs (22 January, 2009)